Published: 25 June 1997
Sinn Fein may lose last excuse not to condemn violence.
The word in west Belfast’s republican strongholds is that several “volunteers” have not been seen for days.
Although some IRA activists continue to plot guerrilla tactics as they always have, an equal number – if not more – are engaged in one of the most critical internal debates in the republican movement since the run-up to the August 1994 ceasefire.
At issue is whether the movement abandons once and for all its twin-track strategy of the bullet and the ballot box – or whether it continues to use terror tactics in the hope of making political gains.
British and Irish officials are hoping their agreement on the decommissioning of arms has robbed Sinn Fein, the IRA’s political wing, of its last excuse not to condemn violence. Indeed, optimism has been generated by the announcement made by Mr John Bruton, the outgoing Irish prime minister, in New York on Monday. However, the pre-condition for Sinn Fein entering full political talks – an IRA ceasefire – is far from being a foregone conclusion.
According to republican sources, hardline IRA elements remain deeply suspicious of the peace process as framed by the Anglo-Irish initiative. For the political talks on offer do not hold out the prospect of a united Ireland – for which activists have fought all these years – but a devolved Northern Ireland government inside the United Kingdom.
At the same time, IRA hardliners suspect decommissioning is being dangled before their eyes simply as a way of forcing them into a ceasefire, and that the handing over of weapons further would amount to surrender. Officials concede that reports of a deal may be premature, and that much hinges on winning sufficient trust over the small print.
“We might be putting the issue of decommissioning on the backburner, but there is a lot that still needs to be worked out as to where and how weapons are handed over, and whether the weapons that are handed over are the weapons that the IRA has in its possession,” said an Irish official.
Nevertheless the huge effort which London, Dublin, and Washington are putting into the Northern Ireland issue at present is aimed at exploiting the growing pressures on Sinn Fein to enter the political fray and leave terrorism behind.The IRA’s killing of two policemen 10 days ago provoked not just wide condemnation on both sides of the Atlantic but more discreet protests within the republican movement itself.
One symptom of this disgruntlement was an unprecedented hard-hitting editorial in Andersontown News, a Belfast newspaper traditionally sympathetic to the republican cause.
“It is no longer good enough for the leaders of Sinn Fein to stick to the tired old mantra of refusing to indulge in the politics of condemnation … if a thing is wrong, it is wrong, and deserves to be branded as such,” it stated.<Many Sinn Fein supporters have for years excused IRA violence for political reasons. But suddenly Sinn Fein voters were confronted with an IRA action that many Sinn Fein saw as tantamount to a betrayal of their vote for peace.
“You know what I did this morning after the killings: I went along to my local Sinn Fein office and told them: you do this again and you’ve lost my vote,” said Harry, a life-long supporter who refused to give his full name for fear of reprisals.
Prospects for an IRA ceasefire rest partly on the ability of Ms Mo Mowlam, the Northern Ireland secretary, to allay unionist fears that there cannot be a genuine IRA truce while the organisation is allowed to hang on to its weapons.<But the real hurdle faces the republican movement itself as it struggles to accept that military and political victory may no longer achievable and that only compromise is on the table.
Against such a background, Mr Gerry Adams, the Sinn Fein leader, is torn between his electoral mandate to push for peace, and the private fear that to leave the IRA hardline behind him risks a damaging split within the republican movement from which he would not necessarily emerge victorious.
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