Catalonia increasingly is taking on the aspect of a story foretold.
The huge turn out last summer- a peaceful human protest chain stretching across the region- on Catalonia’s national day, and this week the emergence of the pro-independence republican party Esquerra as the most voted Catalan party in the European elections , were predictable developments given the Madrid PP government’s utter inability to address the Catalan nationalist question with any sense of statesmanship.
Now three days of rioting in Barcelona, while seemingly motivated by neighborhood concerns, represents the kind of political violence which can be provoked by a toxic mix of poor governance and anarchic lack of faith in the established political system’s ability to negotiate, still less absorb fundamental change.
Fast forward to this coming autumn- another Catalan national day, this time marking its totemic three hundredth anniversary, coinciding with the Scots voting to decide whether or not they stay in the UK (current polls show a majority of Scots could still vote for independence) followed by plans to hold a referendum in Catalonia in defiance of the Spanish constitution.
Madrid insists that a referendum on Catalan independence is illegal. Catalan president Arturo Mas says it is a legitimate right while hinting that he remains open to dialogue over how it should be organised. I suspect Mas is dusting off his plans for early Catalan elections to try and reenforce his position while conscious of the danger of being outflanked by Esquerra.
There is still time for this phoney war ending round the negotiating table. The alternative is the enduring stalemate disintegrating into protest and repression on a much larger scale than has occurred so far this on the streets of Barcelona.
