The Catalan electorate have been short changed by headline writers. To call this a resounding personal defeat for Arturo Mas, on the one hand, or a sweeping endorsement of Catalan nationalism on the other is to simplify things to the point of distortion.
True, Mas failed to obtain the absolute majority of CIU he had been seeking but the increase, at his party’s expense , of the vote for Esquerra, suggests that a majority of Catalan voters remain deeply unhappy about their current relationship with the Spanish state as defined by the current Constitution.
It is also evident that Mas will find it difficult if not impossible to make progress towards Independence without striking an alliance with Esquerra. But this risks alienating conservatives and christian democrat supporters of CIU who have little in common with Catalonia’s radical, left-wing party. Nor can he ignore another interesting result yesterday-the doubling of the vote for Ciutadans,the small non-nationalist Catalan party which has its power base in Barcelona.
Meanwhile from the perspective of Madrid, it will be tempting simply to dismiss Mas as an upstart politician who has got his just deserts, assume that the ‘independence’ project will now disintegrate , and that the best strategy for the central government strategy is to remain intransigent.
But the PP saw only a relatively small increase in its vote in Catalonia, with its support among Catalans smaller than Esquerra and the Catalan socialist party whose vote did not dip as dramatically as some pundits had predicted after campaigning with a somewhat ambiguous ticket on the issue of Catalan sovereignty, inclining towards a federal rather than a full-scale independent state but nevertheless in favour of a change to the constitution..
Overall,Sunday’s results have produced a rather more complex political map in Catalonia than existed prior to the vote, one that will require real statesmanship to identify which way forward. Sadly no politicians in Barcelona or Madrid has yet risen to the challenge of opting for a strategy of compromise and reconciliation. Instead the campaign has been overshadowed by unproven allegations of financial irregularities (against Mas) and dirty tricks (against the PP) which threaten to fuel antagonisms in the coming weeks.
I suspect however the majority of Catalans- and indeed Spaniards- have this morning uttered a collective sigh of relief with an election result that despite giving the appearance of solving nothing, may have averted a premature divorce.
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